Chernyavskiy, Pavel, Ph.D.

Dr. Pavel Chernyavskiy joined the University of Virginia as an Assistant Professor in January 2021. His methodological work is motivated by the analysis of correlated data, broadly construed. Correlated data arise from taking multiple observations on the same subject or cluster of subjects, taking observations near one another in space, in time, or jointly in space and time. His areas of collaborative research have spanned public health, education, psychology, and ecology, to name a few.

Assistant Professor
Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Biostatistics
Ph.D., Statistics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2015

Public Health Sciences
P.O. Box 800717
Charlottesville, VA 22908-0717

Tel: (434)923-4745
Email: pchern@virginia.edu
3rd floor of the Old Medical School Room 3883

Expertise:

spatial statistics, hierarchical models, Bayesian statistics, statistics education

Research Interests:

health disparities, population health, non-stationary spatial correlation, intervention efficacy

Selected Work

* indicates mentee co-author

Methods

• Narr, C. F.*, Chernyavskiy, P., and Collins, S. M.. (2022). Partitioning macroscale and microscale ecological processes using covariate-driven non-stationary spatial models. Ecological Applications 32(1):e02485. 10.1002/eap.2485
• Froelicher, J. H.*, Forjaz, G., Rosenberg, P. S., and Chernyavskiy, P. (2021). Geographic disparities of breast cancer incidence in Portugal at the district level: A spatial age-period-cohort analysis, 1998-2011. Cancer Epidemiology, 74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2021.102009
• Chernyavskiy, P., Little, M. P., & Rosenberg, P. S. (2020). Spatially varying age–period–cohort analysis with application to US mortality, 2002–2016, Biostatistics, Volume 21, Issue 4, Pages 845–859, https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxz009
• Chernyavskiy, P., Little, M. P., & Rosenberg, P. S. (2019). A unified approach for assessing heterogeneity in age–period–cohort model parameters using random effects. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 28(1), 20–34. https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280217713033
• Chernyavskiy, P., Kennerley, V. M.*, Jemal, A., Little, M. P., & Rosenberg, P. S. (2019). Heterogeneity of colon and rectum cancer incidence across 612 SEER counties, 2000–2014. International Journal of Cancer, 144(8), 1786-1795. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ijc.31776
• Chernyavskiy, P., Little, M. P., & Rosenberg, P. S. (2018). Correlated Poisson models for age‐period‐cohort analysis. Statistics in medicine, 37(3), 405-424. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7519

Collaborative

• Davis Lynn, B. C., Chernyavskiy, P., Gierach, G. L., & Rosenberg, P. S. (2022). Decreasing Incidence of Estrogen Receptor–Negative Breast Cancer in the United States: Trends by Race and Region. JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 114(2), 263-270. https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djab186
  • Subsequent response to comment by Dr. Krieger: https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djac074
• Stephens KE, Chernyavskiy P, Bruns DR (2021) Impact of altitude on COVID-19 infection and death in the United States: A modeling and observational study. PLoS ONE 16(1): e0245055. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245055
  • Interactive COVID-19 Dashboard, updated daily: link
• Shiels MS, Chernyavskiy P, Anderson WF, Best AF, Haozous EA, Hartge P, Rosenberg PS, Thomas D, Freedman ND, Berrington de Gonzalez A. Trends in premature mortality in the USA by sex, race, and ethnicity from 1999 to 2014: an analysis of death certificate data. Lancet. (2017); 389(10073):1043-1054. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2FS0140-6736(17)30187-3

Active projects (Pre-prints)

• Formanack, A., Doshi, A. B.*, Valdez, R. S., Williams, I., Moorman, R., and Chernyavskiy, P. (2022). Race, class, and place modify mortality rates for the top 12 causes of death in the United States, 1999-2021. medRxiv. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.14.22276404v1
• Horton, W. B., Hannah, E. E., Morales, F. L., Chaney, C. R., Krahn, K. N., Chernyavskiy, P., and Moorman, R. (2022). Accuracy of a Risk Alert Threshold for ICU Hypoglycemia: Retrospective Analysis of Alert Performance and Association with Clinical Deterioration Events. medRxiv. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.15.22276435v1
• Chernyavskiy, P., Richardson, J. W., & Ratcliffe, S. J. (2021). COVID-19 vaccine uptake in United States counties: geospatial vaccination patterns and trajectories towards herd immunity. medRxiv. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.28.21257946v1

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