Chernyavskiy, Pavel, Ph.D.

Pavel Chernyavskiy, Ph.D.Dr. Chernyavskiy joined the University of Virginia as an Assistant Professor in January 2021. His methodological work is motivated by the analysis of correlated data, broadly construed. Correlated data arise from taking multiple observations on the same subject or cluster of subjects, taking observations near one another in space, in time, or jointly in space and time. His areas of collaborative research have spanned public health, education, psychology, and ecology, to name a few.

Prior to UVA, Dr. Chernyavskiy was an Assistant Professor of Statistics at the University of Wyoming (2018-2020) and a Postdoctoral Fellow at the National Cancer Institute – Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics (2015-2018).

Assistant Professor
Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Biostatistics
Ph.D., Statistics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2015

Public Health Sciences
P.O. Box 800717
Charlottesville, VA 22908-0717

Tel: TBD (working remotely)
3rd floor of the Old Medical School Room TBD


spatial statistics, hierarchical models, Bayesian statistics, statistics education

Research Interests:

health disparities, population health, non-stationary spatial correlation, intervention efficacy

Recent Publications:

Stephens KE, Chernyavskiy P, Bruns DR (2021) Impact of altitude on COVID-19 infection and death in the United States: A modeling and observational study. PLoS ONE 16(1): e0245055.

  • Interactive COVID-19 Dashboard, updated daily: link

Pavel Chernyavskiy, Mark P Little, Philip S Rosenberg, Spatially varying age–period–cohort analysis with application to US mortality, 2002–2016, Biostatistics, Volume 21, Issue 4, October 2020, Pages 845–859,

Utada, M., Chernyavskiy, P., Lee, W.J., Franceschi, S., Sauvaget, C., de Gonzalez, A.B. and Withrow, D.R. (2019), Increasing risk of uterine cervical cancer among young Japanese women: Comparison of incidence trends in Japan, South Korea and Japanese‐Americans between 1985 and 2012. Int. J. Cancer, 144: 2144-2152.

Chernyavskiy, P., Little, M. P., & Rosenberg, P. S. (2019). A unified approach for assessing heterogeneity in age–period–cohort model parameters using random effects. Statistical Methods in Medical Research28(1), 20–34.

Shiels MS, Chernyavskiy P, Anderson WF, Best AF, Haozous EA, Hartge P, Rosenberg PS, Thomas D, Freedman ND, Berrington de Gonzalez A. Trends in premature mortality in the USA by sex, race, and ethnicity from 1999 to 2014: an analysis of death certificate data. Lancet. 2017 Mar 11;389(10073):1043-1054.

Links to More Information:

Code and data on GitHub: GitHub page

ResearchGate: ResearchGate profile

Google Scholar: Google Scholar profile

Applied Bayesian Statistics course on YouTube: Applied Bayes course

Introduction to Spatial Statistics course on YouTube: Intro to Spatial Statistics